Dublin Real Estate Update – 12/5/08
The average reported home sale price in Dublin glided down a bit this week to $506K. We had the first reported home sold at Schaefer Ranch this week in addition to another new home sold at Tralee. In addition to the 2 new homes sold this week, we also had 9 existing homes close.
In related news, the stock market reacted positively to rumors of President-Elect Obama’s plans to include a housing incentive (tax credit) component in his economic stimulus plan and the Treasury Department’s plans to lower mortgage rates. Please check out this article for more details and note the pop in the stock prices of the national homebuilders like Toll Brothers.
1:22 PM on December 14th, 2008
Need help from Dublin old-timers!
My wife and I are new couples planning to move to the Dublin Ranch area. Our main stress right now is deciding to rent there or buy a condo. Getting financing is not so much of a problem as the fear of buying only to see our first condo lose $50K to $100K equity in the next 2 years…
Rent/wait then buy? Take the plunge now?
Advice?
5:12 PM on December 18th, 2008
Is there a similar site like this for san ramon area? I was considering Schaefer Ranch area, but it looks like their new plan is making the whole area not as attractive.
5:23 PM on December 18th, 2008
I don’t know if anyone in SR cares enough about the community to put in the time and money for a site like this. Then again maybe there is and I just don’t know about it.
Renting vs Buying, wow that is a dilema for all of us. If you care to listen to the so called experts it could take years before the housing market recovers. In regards to a Condo in Dublin Ranch, well you need to take into account the huge inventory of built condos plus the huge amount of units that are still on the drawing board with many parcels still zoned for such similiar product. Supply and demand, given the before mentioned fact, Condos in Dublin Ranch could take twice as long to recover.
On the otherhand I always advocate owning vs renting as I don’t want to see Dublin become a rental community. We’d love to have you as a neighbor though whether you choose to own or rent.
Best bet is to keep looking and gauge where prices are month to month as no one is sure if we’ve hit bottom yet. If you find a super bargain, like a short sale or a foreclosure that is in reasonable shape, then it may be a good opportunity as you’d have a bit of cushion if things continue to tank further.
Only if I had a crystal ball I would have sold my Dublin Ranch home in summer of 2006 and rented. Buy back in mid 2009 and I’d be sitting pretty. Oh well!!
7:07 PM on December 18th, 2008
Another thought is that with the drop in prices, you should be able to buy a single family residence in Dublin, always the better way to go financially.
Ultimately, it comes down to how long you intend to live in your next home. If you plan on 3-5 years, my advice is buy now. Even if prices remain stagnant, you should be able to recover enough equity in 3-5 years to rent it to cover your mortgage while you move into something different. Rentals remain high in Dubln. The bottom line is Dublin is still a very attractive place to live. Email me at jbl49@yahoo.com if you want more information.
12:53 AM on December 19th, 2008
Help from an old timer and realtor.
You are right the first criteria in buying a home is investment. Secondary is you are buying a home because you hate renting and not having tax shelter. Terciary, is you are buying a home because you love to live in it because of its beauty and its amenities. That was before. Nowadays, the first criteria has a clause. It is an investment but a long term investment. You may lose 50K the first year that is if you are selling in a year. More than likely, you should be looking at a 3 or 5 year period or maybe more. You can always rent your home and maybe (I cannot predict the future) you will still get positive or break even cash flow. If and when you wish to move or upgrade to another home. Why? Tight lending practices and the number of people with bad credit due to their recent foreclosures. The good thing about buying a home now is you are buying at a low price. “Buy low, sell high”. California home prices from early 90′s until the 2003-2004 Disneyland Days were a steady rate of climb. Took a little bump 2001-2002. 2003 – 2005 we experienced the biggest price jump. 2003 – 2005 are fuzzy math numbers. A lot of bad factors that should never happen again unfolded. From hereon, I cannot see loose lending practices ever occurring. Secondary, renting to own is great as long as you have a good well written contract. I would favor owning for the tax shelter part of it. Thirdly, is if you cannot find a rental home that does not appeal to you and a home for sale is catching your eye then go for it. In summary, buy a home for the long term. Buying a home is no longer a short term investment. If you are first time homebuyer, and would be short of cash. Check our local government first time homebuyer program. Thanks for considering East Dublin or Dublin itself.
6:12 AM on December 19th, 2008
I wonder what all these real estate experts are going to do when Dublin falls victim to the long overdue Hayward fault snapping and causing a massive earthquake in this region. I can already imagine smoke coming from the underground parking garages along the condos and apartments on Dublin Blvd, suffocating those inside. I imagine lots of homes badly damaged, the economy collapsing, and basically experiencing the Bay Area’s own Katrina.
It sounds terrible, but it’s bound to happen sometime soon and any earthquake expert will tell you that. All real estate experts fail to acknowledge this scenario, which would destroy home values for many years (as the ’89 quake did). The only analyst I’ve heard talk about this has been Rob Black.
We’re in our single story home for the long haul, and one day it’ll be worth more than what we paid for it in 2006. But we also know that when the big one hits, real estate is in for a world of hurt, and that’s hoping we even escape this disaster alive and unharmed.
12:40 PM on December 19th, 2008
I won’t even think about home price when the big one hits. How will I be able to rebuild. Earthquake insurance is costly and hard to find. Feds will probably step in but you are looking at increasing your mortgage to rebuild. Would be hard to predict the magnitude of home damage to the epicenter of the quake. The closer you are the greater. West Dublin is closer to the fault. Let us take for example the Loma Prieta quake. Home damage was extensive closer to the fault. San Francisco Marina District got hit hard because that is a land fill. Marina District home price is still at a all time high. Maybe the ambience of living close to the bay and the city. Homes nowadays can withstand the Loma Prieta magnitude. Anything higher we don’t know. I have been to a 7.6 in the Philippines in the 80′s. Disaster? Yes…. 2 building collapsed because of poor engineering with lots of kickbacks to building inspector. Fire and water shortage? Yes. In short, it is nice to live in a one story home. As long as you are not standing at the fault. Centex new homes have great earthquake retrofits. I like how they enforce their foundations. I am more scared of oceans rising than the big one coming at the Hayward Fault.
1:11 PM on December 19th, 2008
From what the experts have said, Loma Prieta is just a small taste of what is going to happen next. San Francisco is a city built to burn. Oakland and especially Hayward will be devastated. It’s not that the homes in Dublin will be so damaged, but the local economy will be ravaged and this will affect home prices. I think it took 7 to 9 years to recover from ’89. The next could collapse bridges, destroy freeway overheads, and the poorly built homes in the East Bay and SF are sitting ducks.
I don’t mean to scare everyone, but just be prepared for it to happen and build it into your real estate investment plan. My wife and I do have earthquake insurance. It’s expensive, but living in CA, it’s a necessary expense. We’ve gone almost 150 years since the last big one, so we’re long, long overdue. And the longer it takes to happen, the bigger it will be when it does happen.
5:48 PM on May 9th, 2009
Hey are you still doing real estate updates?
5:55 PM on May 9th, 2009
Hi Yang – we haven’t been doing the real estate updates. There has been a thought to maybe start providing quarterly updates. Any suggestions or thoughts on what information you’d be interested in seeing?
Thx, John Z.