Thx, John Z.

I don’t mean to scare everyone, but just be prepared for it to happen and build it into your real estate investment plan. My wife and I do have earthquake insurance. It’s expensive, but living in CA, it’s a necessary expense. We’ve gone almost 150 years since the last big one, so we’re long, long overdue. And the longer it takes to happen, the bigger it will be when it does happen.

It sounds terrible, but it’s bound to happen sometime soon and any earthquake expert will tell you that. All real estate experts fail to acknowledge this scenario, which would destroy home values for many years (as the ’89 quake did). The only analyst I’ve heard talk about this has been Rob Black.

We’re in our single story home for the long haul, and one day it’ll be worth more than what we paid for it in 2006. But we also know that when the big one hits, real estate is in for a world of hurt, and that’s hoping we even escape this disaster alive and unharmed.

You are right the first criteria in buying a home is investment. Secondary is you are buying a home because you hate renting and not having tax shelter. Terciary, is you are buying a home because you love to live in it because of its beauty and its amenities. That was before. Nowadays, the first criteria has a clause. It is an investment but a long term investment. You may lose 50K the first year that is if you are selling in a year. More than likely, you should be looking at a 3 or 5 year period or maybe more. You can always rent your home and maybe (I cannot predict the future) you will still get positive or break even cash flow. If and when you wish to move or upgrade to another home. Why? Tight lending practices and the number of people with bad credit due to their recent foreclosures. The good thing about buying a home now is you are buying at a low price. “Buy low, sell high”. California home prices from early 90′s until the 2003-2004 Disneyland Days were a steady rate of climb. Took a little bump 2001-2002. 2003 – 2005 we experienced the biggest price jump. 2003 – 2005 are fuzzy math numbers. A lot of bad factors that should never happen again unfolded. From hereon, I cannot see loose lending practices ever occurring. Secondary, renting to own is great as long as you have a good well written contract. I would favor owning for the tax shelter part of it. Thirdly, is if you cannot find a rental home that does not appeal to you and a home for sale is catching your eye then go for it. In summary, buy a home for the long term. Buying a home is no longer a short term investment. If you are first time homebuyer, and would be short of cash. Check our local government first time homebuyer program. Thanks for considering East Dublin or Dublin itself.

Ultimately, it comes down to how long you intend to live in your next home. If you plan on 3-5 years, my advice is buy now. Even if prices remain stagnant, you should be able to recover enough equity in 3-5 years to rent it to cover your mortgage while you move into something different. Rentals remain high in Dubln. The bottom line is Dublin is still a very attractive place to live. Email me at jbl49@yahoo.com if you want more information.

Renting vs Buying, wow that is a dilema for all of us. If you care to listen to the so called experts it could take years before the housing market recovers. In regards to a Condo in Dublin Ranch, well you need to take into account the huge inventory of built condos plus the huge amount of units that are still on the drawing board with many parcels still zoned for such similiar product. Supply and demand, given the before mentioned fact, Condos in Dublin Ranch could take twice as long to recover.

On the otherhand I always advocate owning vs renting as I don’t want to see Dublin become a rental community. We’d love to have you as a neighbor though whether you choose to own or rent.

Best bet is to keep looking and gauge where prices are month to month as no one is sure if we’ve hit bottom yet. If you find a super bargain, like a short sale or a foreclosure that is in reasonable shape, then it may be a good opportunity as you’d have a bit of cushion if things continue to tank further.

Only if I had a crystal ball I would have sold my Dublin Ranch home in summer of 2006 and rented. Buy back in mid 2009 and I’d be sitting pretty. Oh well!!