Mortgage Rates and Home Values: Up, Down, Sideways?

As a lending industry professional serving Dublin, CA and the greater Bay Area, I get questions about mortgage rates all the time. Lately, with interest rates at an all-time low, people want to know if the cost of borrowing will head up, down, or sideways. I can definitely tell you the rates are headed up. Now, the rock bottom could be tomorrow, in three months, or in six months. Who knows? I stopped trying to predict that long ago. This country has printed almost as much money in the last few years as all the drunken sailors have spent overseas since the first fleet was assembled. With inflation on its way, the return of higher interest rates is only a matter of time.
People love a good deal. Prospective borrowers want to wait for the rates to hit rock bottom before they pull the trigger. Why pay more to borrow than you have to? I can understand and respect where these customers are coming from, but people who are fixated on getting the lowest interest rate often forget to account for the cost of waiting. They may still be paying rent when owning could very well be cheaper after they take advantage of the tax deductions. As they sit on the fence, the only outcome they are guaranteeing is missing out on the terrific rates available today.
This situation is not unlike meeting that perfect mate you have been waiting for all your life. Instead of closing the deal and getting married, you think someone better will come along and end the relationship. That is just plain foolish. As Crosby, Stills and Nash famously sang, “Love The One You’re With.” The song is not about settling. It is about recognizing a good thing when you already got it.
Home values have depreciated in Dublin and beyond. Nationally, they fell slightly for a third straight month in nearly all cities tracked by a major index. The decline partly reflects the typical slowdown after the peak buying season in the summer. Kids are back in school, the fall months are full of holiday preparation, and there is that little annual tradition right before spring called the Super Bowl. With everything else vying for people’s attention, the seasonal market slowdown is expected.
Still, current and prospective home buyers should be encouraged by some of the numbers from the end of last year. Sales of previously occupied homes and new home construction both rose in the last three months. Home builders are optimistic as more people express interest in buying new homes this year.
The economy is showing signs of recovery, but most economists believe a full housing recovery could take years. I believe prices will bob around a bit this year, and we will see consistent growth over the next three years. The sand states, which include Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada, should be the first states to see an increase.
If you are thinking about buying a home for the long run, now is the perfect time. Housing has never been more affordable when you consider the price-to-income ratio. Take advantage of the ridiculously low now, and you could be years ahead paying off the mortgage. Waiting for the mortgage interest rates to drop with no guarantee that they will may be just like passing up the perfect mate. Once the rates do come back up, you may find yourself in a rented apartment watching reruns of HGTV’s House Hunters and kicking yourself for not locking in the low interest rates while you had the chance.
After a proud 10-year career in the Navy, Scott Hill entered the wonderful world of mortgage lending. In his 14 years in the industry, Scott has directly helped over 1,000 families finance the purchase of a new home or refinance an existing loan to a lower interest rate. Please call (925) 829-9131 or e-mail Scott@ScottHillTeam.com for more information.














1:26 PM on February 19th, 2012
This nonsense about a full housing recovery taking years is just getting tiresome. There was a bubble in California, a bubble that tripled most home prices over the period of a few years. This bubble was very damaging to the US. So you are saying we should recover to what would be that same bubble? If anything, the prices of homes should further deflate, and the PR of real estate agents, lenders, or even home owners won’t change that.
This whole housing bubble was/is nothing but greed and the hope of easy money.